The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports shut down all commercial shipping in and out of the country within 36 hours of taking effect, U.S. Central Command said Wednesday, as President Trump declared the war "very close to over" and suggested direct talks with Tehran could resume in Islamabad within days.

The first full day of results — six merchant vessels turned back, trade described by the military as "completely halted" — marked the most aggressive American economic pressure on Iran since the war began Feb. 28. Combined with Trump's prediction that diplomacy could restart imminently, the developments pointed to a conflict approaching either a negotiated settlement or a deeper escalation, with the International Monetary Fund warning a day earlier that prolonged hostilities could tip the world into recession.

Blockade takes hold

Adm. Bradley Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said in a statement early Wednesday that American forces had established "maritime superiority" in the region. "In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea," Cooper said.

The military said 10,000 service members, more than 100 aircraft and over 12 warships were enforcing the cordon on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Six merchant vessels "complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around," Central Command said, and no ships from Iranian ports got through.

Satellite imagery from April 11, analyzed by BBC Verify, showed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier at the eastern edge of the Gulf of Oman, roughly 200 kilometers south of the Iranian coast — the closest the carrier had been observed to the Gulf since the war started.

The blockade entered into force Monday after 21 hours of face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad broke up without an agreement. Central Command said it would permit humanitarian shipments, subject to inspection.

Diplomatic signals

Trump, in a prerecorded interview broadcast Wednesday on Fox Business Network, said he viewed the conflict as nearing its end. "We've beaten them militarily, totally," Trump told anchor Maria Bartiromo. "I think it's close to over, I view it as very close to over. ... If I pulled up stakes right now it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country, and we're not finished."

He told the New York Post on Tuesday that fresh U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad "could be happening over the next two days." A White House official told CNBC that a second round was under discussion, though nothing had been officially scheduled.

The Associated Press, citing regional officials, reported Wednesday that the two sides had an "in principle agreement" to extend their fragile two-week ceasefire. But a senior U.S. official told CNBC that Washington "has not formally agreed to an extension of the ceasefire," adding that there was "continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal."

Vice President Vance, who led the American delegation, identified Iran's nuclear program as the central obstacle. "The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon," Vance said. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the U.S. delegation of "maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade."

Economic fallout

The IMF warned Tuesday that a worst-case scenario — oil averaging $110 a barrel this year and reaching $125 in 2027 — could push global growth below 2 percent in 2026, a near-recession that has occurred only four times since 1980. The fund cut its U.K. growth estimate to 0.8 percent from 1.3 percent, the sharpest downgrade among advanced economies. Oil traded at $95 a barrel on Tuesday, down from a $120 peak but well above pre-war levels.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the BBC that allied nations would endure a "small bit of economic pain" but argued the price was justified. "I wonder what the hit to global GDP would be if a nuclear weapon hit London," Bessent said. "I am saying that I am less concerned about short-term forecasts, for long-term security."

Governments moved to cushion the blow. Ireland announced more than $589 million in fuel tax cuts. Germany unveiled a $1.9 billion relief plan. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the federal gas tax through early September. Britain's finance minister, Rachel Reeves, called the war a "folly" with no clear exit plan.

The view from Tehran and Beijing

Iran labeled the blockade "piracy" and threatened to retaliate by targeting ports in Gulf states. Under its 10-point negotiation plan, Tehran demanded an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the release of $6 billion in frozen assets, guarantees around its nuclear program and the right to charge ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. China, which buys an estimated 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, called the blockade "dangerous" and "irresponsible." Analysts cited by the BBC said the blockade may be designed in part to force Beijing into a more active role in peace talks.

The ceasefire is set to expire next week. Whether the blockade's early results accelerate diplomacy or provoke the Iranian retaliation Tehran has promised will likely shape what comes next.