Kevin Warsh sits before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning to begin a confirmation fight complicated less by his own record than by a Justice Department investigation of the man he would replace. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., the retiring North Carolina Republican whose vote the committee needs, has said he will not clear the nominee until the DOJ drops its criminal probe of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a probe a federal judge has described as an act of intimidation.

The standoff turns an otherwise technical confirmation into a test of the Fed's independence less than a month before Powell's term expires May 15. President Trump said Wednesday he will fire Powell if the chair does not leave voluntarily once a successor is confirmed. Warsh's prepared testimony, leaked Monday, pledges that "monetary policy independence is essential" and that he is "committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent."

The Tillis block

Tillis has told reporters he supports Warsh personally but will withhold his vote until the Powell inquiry is resolved. Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., told reporters last week he expects the department to wrap up within weeks. "The second step, later on, we'll have a vote on Kevin Warsh," Scott said. "I believe that the DOJ will finish and wrap this up in the next several weeks, and Thom Tillis will be a 'yes' on Kevin Warsh."

The probe, disclosed by Powell in a January video statement, centers on his congressional testimony about the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters. Powell has said the inquiry is a pressure campaign to force lower interest rates. The Justice Department has said it will appeal the federal judge's ruling against the investigation.

The money questions

The Office of Government Ethics released Warsh's disclosures last week, showing assets between roughly $135 million and $226 million, according to Fox News. An earlier CNBC tally pegged the range at $131 million to $209 million. Either figure would make him the wealthiest Fed chair in history. The filing does not include the fortune of his wife, Jane Lauder, the Estée Lauder heiress whom Forbes estimates at about $1.9 billion.

An ethics official attached a note saying Warsh is out of compliance with disclosure rules for certain funds whose underlying assets he has not itemized. He has pledged to divest within 90 days of confirmation. Democrats on the committee said in a staff memo that "without the ability to review Mr. Warsh's holdings in public and in detail, it is impossible to determine whether Mr. Warsh is holding an interest in institutions he would be responsible for regulating as Fed Chair."

The rate question

Warsh has spent the past year arguing that artificial-intelligence productivity gains will let the Fed cut rates without reigniting inflation, a view that aligns with Trump's demands. That is a reversal from the hawkish profile he built as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack pushed back on the thesis in an April 15 CNBC interview, saying, "It's not clear to me how the balance of this is going to weigh out, and I think right now it's too soon to say what it's going to mean."

March headline inflation hit 3.3 percent, driven by a 21.2 percent monthly jump in gasoline prices tied to the Iran war, complicating any near-term path to easing.

The counterpoint

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the committee's ranking Democrat, told NPR that Warsh's rate pivot is evidence he will defer to the White House. "Warsh has really gone out of his way to demonstrate that he will be the sock puppet in chief," Warren said. Democrats are expected to press him on whether he gave Trump any assurances about rate policy in exchange for the nomination, a line of inquiry former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told the Washington Examiner he also expects from committee members.

A committee vote is not scheduled. Scott said last week he expects the Justice Department to close its Powell probe within several weeks, at which point Tillis would release his hold.