Texas Republicans vote Tuesday in a Senate primary runoff between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a contest that became a referendum on President Trump's grip over the party after the president endorsed Paxton six days before voting day. Cornyn led the March 3 primary with 42% of the vote to Paxton's 40.5%, but neither cleared the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff.
The winner will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who raised $27 million in the first three months of this year and is trying to become the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate race in nearly four decades. The seat is one of a handful that may decide whether Republicans hold their 53-47 Senate majority. Spending across the March primary and Tuesday's runoff has topped $120 million in advertising alone, according to AdImpact, making the contest the most expensive Senate primary on record.
Trump's late move
Trump sat out the race for months before backing Paxton last Tuesday. "Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate," Trump wrote in a social media post. He said Cornyn "was not supportive of me when times were tough" and "was very late in backing me" in 2016 and 2024.
The endorsement followed a string of Trump-driven primary victories. Three weeks ago, five Indiana state senators who had opposed Trump's congressional redistricting push were ousted. A week and a half ago, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, failed to advance to a runoff. Last Tuesday, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
"The moment Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, he took a somewhat unlevel playing field and turned it into a steep cliff," Rice University political science professor Mark Jones told CBS News.
Scandal and spending
Paxton was impeached by the GOP-controlled Texas House in 2023 on charges of bribery and abuse of office in a 121-23 vote, then acquitted by the state Senate. Securities fraud charges filed in 2015 were dropped in 2024 under a pre-trial diversion deal. His wife filed for divorce last year citing "biblical grounds" based on "recent discoveries" in the marriage.
Cornyn, supported by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has argued that nominating Paxton would force the party to spend heavily defending a seat in November. Cornyn told Fox News Digital that there "will be an incredible tsunami of Democratic funds coming in against Paxton, were he the nominee" and added that if he is the nominee, "we'll be able to shoulder the burden pretty much on our own."
Paxton, in an interview on Fox News' The Big Weekend Show, said Cornyn "fought Trump on the border" and "fought the president's reelection."
Establishment alarm
National Republicans have voiced concern that a Paxton win would divert money from competitive races elsewhere. Trump's "late intervention could force Republicans to waste massive sums defending Texas in the general election — money that otherwise would go to Michigan, Maine, and Alaska," GOP strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. Cornyn told Fox News Digital that Paxton has "gotten more and more emboldened as he's gotten away with all the scandal and mischief" and predicted "a very rocky time" against general-election voters if Paxton wins the nomination.
The ballot also includes a Republican runoff for attorney general between Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton, who has spent more than $11 million of his own money on the race. A University of Houston poll this month showed Middleton leading Roy 48% to 39%. In the Houston-based 18th Congressional District, redrawn last year, 78-year-old Rep. Al Green faces 38-year-old Rep. Christian Menefee in a Democratic runoff between two incumbents. In the Dallas-area 33rd District, Rep. Julie Johnson faces former Rep. Colin Allred.
No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994. The runoff winner will be favored in November, but Talarico's fundraising and the prospect of a Paxton general election have given Democrats their clearest opening in a generation.