Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Saturday that the United States and Iran are within a day of signing a deal to end their war, posting on X that "we are closer to a peace deal than ever before" and that "Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week." His statement followed his Friday confirmation that the two sides had reached "a final, agreed upon text."
The announcement marks the furthest the four-month-old conflict has moved toward a formal halt since an April ceasefire collapsed into intermittent strikes. Sharif's timeline pushes past Thursday's Oval Office reversal, when President Trump canceled a wave of planned strikes and said a framework had been reached. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state media Friday that a memorandum of understanding "could happen within the next 1 or 2 days, or within the next few days," and Trump reposted the comment on Truth Social.
What the text covers
The memorandum would reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls and restore prewar shipping within roughly 30 days, lift the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and extend the current ceasefire by 60 days, NBC News reported, citing people familiar with the text. A senior administration official told reporters Friday the deal "reopens the strait and lifts the blockade," "leads to the dismantling of" Iran's nuclear program, and gives the United States custody of Tehran's enriched uranium. Nuclear and sanctions details would be deferred to 60 days of technical talks. The official put confidence in a near-term signing at "80-85%."
On the terms
Trump has publicly contested elements Iranian officials have aired. Major Gen. Mohsen Rezaie, military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, told the Young Journalists Club that Trump had agreed to release $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets but was "unwilling to announce it publicly." Vice President JD Vance rejected the claim on X, writing that "the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting." Trump told Axios that Iranian officials privately "apologized for putting out false information."
The United Arab Emirates separately denied a Reuters report Saturday that it had agreed to unlock $10 billion to $20 billion for Iran in return for a halt to attacks on Emirati targets, telling CNBC the allegations were "entirely false and unfounded." Araghchi also said Iran would keep control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge ships "for services rendered," telling state TV that Iran's "sword will remain poised over the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely" — language at odds with the no-tolls reopening described by sources briefed on the text.
The counterpoint
Skeptics note the pattern. The Washington Examiner's John Zogby wrote Friday that Trump "has said that the U.S. has a deal with Iran at least 39 times in public," and Thursday's announcement made 40. Fellow contributor Jed Babbin wrote that "for about six weeks now, Trump has been telling us that a deal with Iran is just around the corner. But it isn't, and hasn't been," citing Iranian demands on enrichment, payments and uranium stocks. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham warned on X Friday that the terms Iranian media described would be "awful" and that Trump's red line on enrichment must hold.
The Lebanon front is a second complication. NBC reported the deal would end fighting there, where Israel has pressed a deadly offensive against Hezbollah despite existing ceasefire agreements. Israel is not party to the U.S.-Iran talks, and its leaders have said they do not plan to withdraw from Lebanon, according to CBS News. The IDF said Friday its air force intercepted a "suspicious aerial target" near the Lebanese border.
Islamabad's mediator role has cost it. As many as 15,000 Pakistanis, most of them Shia Muslims, have been deported from the UAE since the war began, the Christian Science Monitor reported, and the UAE in April demanded repayment of a $3.5 billion loan before Saudi Arabia stepped in with $3 billion.
Oil futures closed Friday at under $85 a barrel for July West Texas Intermediate, down almost 4 percent and well below the April peak above $110. The Group of Seven leaders meet in France next week. Whether they convene with a signed memorandum, or with another near-deal slipping, will turn on the next 24 hours.