U.S. crude oil dropped below $80 a barrel Monday for the first time since March, the two-year Treasury yield fell more than three basis points, and SoftBank Group closed 10 percent higher in Tokyo, a synchronized rally driven by President Trump's announcement that the United States and Iran have reached a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The moves ricocheted through the assets that had absorbed the heaviest damage from the conflict: oil, sovereign debt and Asian technology shares. A Friday signing ceremony in Switzerland, mediated by Pakistan, is set to formalize the agreement and trigger the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.

What moved

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for July were down 5.2 percent at $80.46 a barrel by 7:46 a.m. Eastern and traded as low as $80.03, the lowest level since March. Brent crude for August fell 5.16 percent to $82.82. About 20 percent of the world's oil supplies passed through Hormuz before tanker traffic collapsed in early March under Iranian attacks, a disruption CNBC described as the biggest oil supply shock in history.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than two basis points to 4.459 percent, the two-year yield dropped to 4.054 percent, and the 30-year bond yield slipped to 4.958 percent. Fed funds futures put the probability of no change at Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting at more than 98 percent, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

In Asia, SoftBank ended up 10 percent, with Tokyo Electron up 7 percent and Advantest up 7.67 percent. Samsung Electronics gained 4.5 percent and SK Hynix added 6.42 percent in Seoul. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing rose 2.81 percent and Hon Hai Precision added 2.69 percent.

What the deal says

Trump said in a Truth Social post Sunday that "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," and that the strait would open without a toll system and the U.S. would end its naval blockade. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has mediated between Washington and Tehran, said Sunday the two sides had declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iranian state media reported last Friday that a 14-page draft memorandum committed Iran to reopening Hormuz within 30 days in exchange for the U.S. lifting oil sanctions, with 60 days of follow-on talks on Tehran's nuclear program.

The U.K., France, Germany and Italy called the agreement "a moment of opportunity to restore regional stability and stabilise the global economy" in a joint statement, and said they were prepared to lift relevant sanctions in response to "clear and verifiable steps taken by Iran regarding its nuclear program." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the deal but cautioned that "there can be no peace in the Middle East while Lebanon is in flames."

The caveat

The rally ran ahead of the supply picture. Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, told CNBC the energy shock is "far from over," and said he does not expect shipping through Hormuz to return to pre-conflict levels for the foreseeable future. He projected prices would hover in the "low $90s" into the third quarter as inventories rebuild, mines are cleared and stranded ships are repaired.

"The market is oversimplifying things," Hynes said. "Iran's control over the Strait will essentially be an ongoing issue that the market will have to deal with. That will keep prices relatively elevated... the oil market now faces a geopolitical risk premium." Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, estimated 800 million barrels of inventory would still be lost through November even if Hormuz flows normalized immediately. Iranian officials had not publicly responded to Monday's market moves by press time.

The signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland, the same day Trump is set to meet G7 leaders at the summit that opens Monday in Evian, France.