President Trump on Tuesday rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over a weekend airstrike on a Hezbollah command center in Beirut, the world's largest tanker operator said its crews may wait weeks before sending ships back through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Vice President JD Vance went on CBS to deny that the memorandum of understanding with Iran releases billions of dollars in assets, three sets of new complications three days before Friday's scheduled signing in Geneva.
The friction reframes a deal that JSJ reported Monday as effectively done.
On the water
Brent crude futures fell 2.7 percent on Tuesday to $80.91 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.8 percent to $78.46, the lowest levels since March 4, as traders priced in Trump's promise that Hormuz will "completely reopen" Friday free of Iranian tolls. The strait carried about 20 percent of the world's oil supply before fighting closed it at the end of February.
Shippers are not moving at the speed the futures market is. Hapag-Lloyd, the German container giant, said in a statement, "We hope that our four remaining ships will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this weekend." Jotaro Tamura, chief executive of Mitsui OSK Lines and the head of the world's largest tanker operator, told the Financial Times that many operators could wait weeks before clearing tankers to resume transit.
"What will have to come in place is not just a simple agreement between the relevant countries, but it has to be material and translated into the real situations in the Strait of Hormuz, so that shipping lines can make themselves comfortable to go through," Tamura said.
Lebanon strain
Trump, speaking at the Group of Seven summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, said the weekend Israeli strike in Beirut nearly upended the signing. "[I] didn't like where two hours before we're signing the agreement that there was an attack in Lebanon, in Beirut," he told reporters, describing the strike as "vicious" and "too much," according to CBS News.
The president said Netanyahu "has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon" and suggested Israel let Syria handle Hezbollah. He paired the criticism with a defense of the relationship, calling it "great" and saying Washington and Israel are "talking about some end details."
Israeli officials said Monday that their troops would remain in Lebanon regardless of the US-Iran framework, telling reporters that "Trump's agreement does not bind us." Iran's foreign minister said any Israeli forces left in Lebanon would constitute a violation of the deal, setting up an unresolved dispute that Tehran can cite if Friday's ceremony is delayed again.
The $300 billion question
Vance used a Monday CBS News appearance to push back on reporting that Washington had agreed to unlock $300 billion for Tehran. "When people say that billions of dollars of assets will be released, that’s not true," the vice president said, framing the fund as performance-based incentives contingent on Iran allowing inspections of its nuclear program. Trump posted on Truth Social that "the story that the US is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News," mixing up the figure but reinforcing the political sensitivity.
Al Jazeera noted Trump's longstanding criticism of the 2015 nuclear accord that he claimed delivered economic benefits to Tehran, a political backdrop the administration must navigate as it sells the new structure to a skeptical American audience.
The counterpoint
The Tuesday wire was cautious, not hostile to the deal. Hapag-Lloyd called the prospect of peace "good news for us, for our crews, and for our customers," and the oil market's three-month low reflects a working assumption that ships, money and inspectors will eventually move. None of the three sources reported a US lawmaker, an Iranian official or an Israeli minister saying the Friday signing will not happen. The doubts on the table Tuesday were about pace and price, not the agreement itself.
The formal ceremony is set for Friday in Geneva, the first practical test of whether the strait has actually reopened.