Most of the tankers moving oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz this month have gone dark, according to a Kpler tally published Wednesday that offers the first granular picture of the waterway since the U.S.-Iran negotiating window expired Monday.

The maritime-intelligence firm counted 112 crude, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas carriers transiting the strait between Aug. 1 and Aug. 19. Only 21 openly used the Iranian coastal route Tehran demands, and just two openly used the Omani corridor Washington insists on. The remaining 89 — more than 80 percent of energy traffic — either switched off their Automatic Identification System transponders or sailed routes that did not fit either declared corridor.

What the tally shows

Add every cargo type and the picture is similar. Of 236 total ships through Hormuz over the 19-day window, 83 openly used the Iranian route, three the Omani, and two the pre-war central lane. The other 148 — six in 10 — went dark. Overall traffic is a fraction of pre-war volumes: about 130 ships a day before the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began Feb. 28, versus roughly 12 a day so far in August.

The MoU bump

The now-expired 60-day Memorandum of Understanding briefly lifted flows. Kpler said 374 million barrels of oil exited the Gulf while the pact held, about 6.1 million barrels a day, up from 2.3 million between April and the June 17 signing but still only 40 percent of the 15 million barrels a day that moved through Hormuz in 2025. More than half of the MoU-era shipments occurred in the first three weeks. "By the end the flow was thinner, darker and re-accumulating behind the chokepoint," said Emmanuel Belostrino, Kpler's head of global crude and geopolitical market data. Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded 73 transits between Aug. 10 and Aug. 16, down from 91 the previous week.

Why captains disappear

Both belligerents have fired on shipping. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said 15 of its vessels have been hit by missiles or drones since February, killing one crew member and injuring 20. On Aug. 11, a U.S. Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged Vela Nova, which it said was trying to break its blockade of Iranian ports. Marc Ayoub, an energy-policy researcher, told Al Jazeera that Saudi, Iraqi and Kuwaiti shippers now use the Omani route with transponders off and transfer cargoes to other vessels outside the strait; Iranian tankers do the reverse, re-documenting loads "as if they are exported by Oman."

The counterpoint

Both accounts feeding this piece came from Al Jazeera, and neither the White House nor the Pentagon had publicly responded to the Kpler tally by press time. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that "the growing use of alternative logistics arrangements, ship-to-ship transfers, and enhanced regional maritime security measures suggest that Iran's ability to exert pressure through the strait is not absolute."

Brent crude traded around $92 a barrel Thursday morning, roughly $26 above its pre-war level of $66. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Australia-based KCM Trade, told Al Jazeera that "until there is clearer evidence of sustained, safe transit and a more durable diplomatic framework, confidence among operators is likely to stay low and volumes are unlikely to recover meaningfully."