TORONTO — The average U.S. tariff on Canadian goods has nearly doubled since June to 5.7 percent, according to Royal Bank of Canada figures cited by BBC News on Sunday, an escalation that leaves Canada facing a heavier effective duty than Mexico and closing on the rates borne by the United Kingdom and Vietnam.
The jump follows a 50 percent tariff Washington imposed Aug. 22 on about C$28 billion, or $20 billion, of Canadian goods, layered atop existing sectoral duties on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos that do not comply with the USMCA. Canada's "dollar-for-dollar" retaliation on U.S. products — including steel, furniture, cosmetics and farm equipment — takes effect Sept. 8.
Where the pain lands
On the Canadian side, Ontario and Quebec absorb most of the damage. Ontario, the country's manufacturing heartland, has shed tens of thousands of jobs since early 2025 as auto plants announced layoffs and production cuts. Quebec's metal exports fell 36 percent between February 2025 and February 2026, with sector employment down 3.6 percent, according to July data cited by BBC News. The Bank of Canada tallies 55,000 manufacturing jobs lost nationally from January 2025 to January 2026, and Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates the total could reach 90,000 if the new U.S. tariffs persist.
On the U.S. side, Statistics Canada data show Ohio will be hardest hit by the Sept. 8 counterstrike, with C$3.2 billion — 12 percent of its exports to Canada — subject to new duties, followed by Illinois and Pennsylvania. Scotiabank economist Derek Holt said Canada's counter-tariffs appear "very deliberately oriented" toward swing states that could decide November's midterms. The U.S.-based Tax Foundation estimates the average American household will pay $840 more this year because of Trump administration tariffs on Canada and other trading partners.
Lake America goes live
Google on Saturday began pushing an update that labels Lake Ontario as "Lake America" for U.S. users, executing an executive order Trump signed last week. Canadians will continue to see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere will see both names, with "Lake America" in parentheses. "These updates follow our long-standing policy for bodies of water with names that vary from country to country, and are starting to roll out now," Google said in a statement.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford answered with a 24-by-12-foot billboard near Grimsby, Ont., reading "Lake Ontario. Now and Always." Wearing a Team Canada soccer jersey, Ford predicted the original name would "outlast the president" and framed the renaming as retaliation for Canada "standing up for ourselves." Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew called the effort "not his best work." Historian Robert Bothwell called the president a "moron." Trump on Sunday called Canada "the worst" and said its leaders had been "ripping us off for decades."
What is holding up
Canada's economy expanded 3.3 percent in the second quarter and drew C$96.8 billion of foreign direct investment in 2025, its largest inflow since 2007, warding off recession forecasts for now. Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to double Canada's non-U.S. exports over the next decade, and Bank of Canada figures show firms are already shifting sales elsewhere. Toronto menswear maker Matteo Sgaramella told BBC News he is now working trunk shows in Paris rather than New York. "The reception has been amazing," he said.
Administration officials had not publicly rebutted the RBC figures by press time, and no senior U.S. trade representative has outlined a return to the negotiating table since talks collapsed last week. Canada's counter-tariffs take effect Sept. 8.