BERLIN — The far-right Alternative for Germany won 43.8 percent of the vote in Sunday's election in Saxony-Anhalt, more than double its 2021 showing and enough to seat 39 lawmakers in the 83-member state parliament — three short of the majority it needed to govern alone.
The result, confirmed in preliminary counts released Monday, brings a far-right party closer to running a German state than at any point since World War II. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose Christian Democratic Union has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, called the outcome "seismic" and said returning to "business as usual" was not possible.
Merz's CDU polled 17.2 percent, roughly half its previous share, and won 15 seats. The Social Democrats took 9.3 percent, the Greens 8.9 percent and the Left Party 8.6 percent, with eight seats apiece. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, took 5.3 percent and five seats. Turnout in the state of 2.1 million was 77.8 percent.
What comes next
AfD's candidate for governor, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, told public broadcaster ARD that voters had sent a signal that "things cannot carry on like this," and said the party had won a "clear mandate to govern." Siegmund said the party would not engage in "games" such as a minority government, but with the other five parties in parliament split roughly evenly, it is not clear how any of them could assemble a stable coalition without him.
Siegmund said discussions with rival parties began Sunday night and could stretch to weeks. AfD deputy parliamentary leader Beatrix von Storch told the BBC the party was talking to individual CDU lawmakers who are "very, very unhappy with their own party." One idea being floated is an informal arrangement in which the BSW gives tacit support to allow AfD to form a government.
The firewall
Germany's mainstream parties responded by reaffirming the "firewall" that has kept AfD out of every government at every level in the party's 13-year history. Franziska Hoppermann, the CDU's national general secretary, said AfD "wants to leave the euro; that would be economic downfall ... it works closely together with Russia, it wants a completely different social model." She added: "We will not work with them." Merz said his party needed "profound reforms" and had to "reach people at an emotional level," but did not open the door to talks in Magdeburg.
Domestic intelligence classifies AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch as a "right-wing extremist" organization, a designation Siegmund rejects. The party's state platform includes segregating child refugees into separate school classes and creating a task force to detain and deport migrants who have lost the right to remain.
The AfD case
Von Storch pressed the counter-argument that with 43.8 percent of the vote, AfD's opponents could not refuse to negotiate. "You cannot say I do not accept the vote of the people," she told the BBC, adding that the results "were on the table and now democrats have to talk to [one] another. This is what democracy demands." AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the outcome "sensational" and said the party's "hand is outstretched to all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward."
The result drew a wave of international reaction. Hungary's Viktor Orban called it "a huge night for Germany and Europe" and said "this is just the beginning." Elon Musk posted "Gut gemacht!" — well done — on X. French European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad called the vote "a very grave moment for Europe," warning that "nationalism and xenophobia will never be the answer."
Sven Schulze, the defeated CDU premier, congratulated AfD on becoming the state's strongest political force and said the mandate to govern Saxony-Anhalt "now lies with the AfD." Whether any other party will help hand it to them will define the next several weeks in the state capital.