The final sprint to the November 3 midterm election opened on Labor Day with Republican strategists staring down a familiar liability: an unpopular president whose name is on no ballot but whose party controls both chambers of Congress by a single-digit margin.
President Donald Trump's approval rating is mired at an all-time low, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, and his net disapproval is nearly twice what it was at the same point in 2018, when Democrats gained 40 seats in the House. Registered voters prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates by 5 percentage points. Republicans currently hold the House 218-214.
The map
The party controlling the White House has lost House seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938. Analysts at the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics rate the House as likely to flip and the Senate as too close to call. Democrats would need to sweep tough races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina, then win at least two of four states Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Republicans retain structural cushions. Mid-decade redistricting, which concluded this year, could hand the party as many as 10 additional House seats before a single vote is cast. Trump's own super PAC is sitting on a $400 million war chest, and Republican-aligned outside groups have outraised their Democratic counterparts, offsetting stronger candidate fundraising on the Democratic side.
An uneven revolt
Discontent has surfaced in unusual coalitions. In Buchanan County, Iowa, a rural stronghold that broke for Trump 63 percent to 35 percent in 2024, Republican supervisor Dawn Vogel this year voted for a moratorium temporarily banning data centers, NBC News reported. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont have introduced a national version of the same idea. Iowa farmers are absorbing higher energy costs and tariff pain. Texas cattle ranchers were angered by Trump's decision to lift import taxes on foreign beef. Michigan and Maine face fallout from the escalating trade fight with Canada.
"I think that there is just a general sense that the president is not focused on the number one issue with voters, which is affordability," said Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report.
The counter-message
Republicans, led by Trump, plan to define Democrats as socialists, pointing to progressive nominees such as Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. House Speaker Mike Johnson called 2026 a "Contrast for America" year and framed the ballot as "a contrast between common sense and crazy." Party officials say this week's convention will re-energize the base and remind voters of Trump's tax cuts, though its focus on the president could also backfire by tying vulnerable Republicans more tightly to him.
The Republican National Committee will hold that unusual midterm convention this week, with Trump scheduled to speak on both nights. Voters head to the polls November 3.